Mark Robinson’s Chances Against Josh Stein in Latest North Carolina Poll

North Carolina’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson is trailing Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein in the state’s gubernatorial race, according to polling.
North Carolina is a crucial battleground state at the presidential level but is also home to one of the most hotly contested gubernatorial races of 2024. Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is unable to run for a third term due to term limits, and Democrats have been optimistic about holding on to the executive office in the Tar Heel State.
Recent polls have put Stein between 10 and 13 points ahead of his opponent, who would be North Carolina’s first Black governor if elected.
For example, the most recent Quinnipiac University poll, conducted between September 4 and 8, put Stein 10 points ahead among 940 likely voters, on 51 percent to Robinson’s 41 percent. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
And a poll conducted by Florida Atlantic University this month put Stein 11 points ahead, while a Morning Consult poll from September 8 put him 13 points ahead.
Previous polls, including Emerson College and Redfield and Wilton Strategies, have shown Stein with a smaller lead of between 4 and 6 points, but both polls showed Stein’s lead outside of the margin of error. No polls conducted since July have shown Robinson ahead.
“Voters across North Carolina are learning about the contrast between Josh Stein and Mark Robinson. Josh fights for people; Mark Robinson fights job-killing culture wars,” Stein’s campaign manager Jeff Allen told Newsweek.
“But make no mistake,” he added. “This race will be very close. Our campaign is working hard to earn every vote and make sure people know that as Governor, Josh Stein will build a safer, stronger North Carolina.”
Meanwhile, Robinson’s communication director Mike Lonergan told Newsweek that polls “have consistently underestimated Republican support in North Carolina for several cycles now.”
“And with a large portion of the electorate still undecided as we continue to ramp up our efforts on the ground and on the airwaves, Mark Robinson remains in a strong position to win in November,” he added.
Although Democrats have won seven out of the eight gubernatorial races since 1992 in the state, this year’s election was expected to be close. However, in late August, the Cook Political Report moved the race from a tossup to “Leans Democratic.”
It came after President Biden ended his reelection campaign on July 21 amid concerns over his age and cognitive ability.
Before Biden dropped out, polls had shown that the race was very close between Stein and Robinson, with Robinson leading by between 2 and 5 points in some polls, while the two candidates were tied in others.
Since then, Stein has seen a dramatic increase in the polls, and now has a comfortable lead over his opponent.
“The shake-up at the top of the Democratic ticket helped to energize the Democratic base, which helped Stein open up a consistent lead over his polarizing Republican opponent,” Cook Political Report pollster Jessica Taylor wrote.
North Carolina Democrats now hope that Robinson’s controversial record will help them to a victory in November.
Robinson is a controversial figure with a history of attacks on women, Muslims, Jews and the LGBTQ+ community, and pushing conspiracy theories.
He has used words like “filth” and “maggots” when talking about the LGBTQ+ community and said in 2019 that mass shootings were “karma” for American’s support of abortion rights.
He also sparked criticism after saying that Black Americans are not owed reparations for slavery, saying: “If you want to tell the truth about it, it is YOU who owes!”
Former President Donald Trump, who endorsed Robinson in March, has called him “Martin Luther King on steroids.”
Meanwhile, outgoing Governor Roy Cooper described Robinson as “the most extreme statewide candidate in the country right now.”
Cooper told Politico earlier this month that he withdrew from consideration to be Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate in part because he feared Robinson could try to seize power in his absence.
“If I were to be out of state at a campaign event, if I had been the vice-presidential nominee, he could claim he was acting governor,” Cooper said.